How Vice Captain’s projections work
Vice Captain’s projections are built from market data and official statistics - not gut feeling. In short: bookmaker odds and official data go in; fixture difficulty, projected goals, clean sheets, goalscorer odds and expected points come out. This page explains where the numbers come from, how often they update, who stands behind them, and where their limits are.
The principle: market + data, not opinion
Every projection starts from sources that price in real information - bookmaker odds and official fantasy data - rather than subjective ranking. Bookmakers aggregate enormous amounts of money and information into prices; we translate those prices, plus team and player data, into fantasy-relevant numbers you can act on.
What goes in
The core inputs are bookmaker match and player markets, official fantasy data (prices, positions), predicted lineups and team news, player roles (penalties, set-pieces), and fixture schedules. Each projection combines the inputs that matter for that specific question. Ownership and effective-ownership are shown separately as decision support - for spotting differentials and template picks - and do not feed the points projection itself.
Fixture difficulty (FDR)
Fixture difficulty is derived from match odds rather than a fixed reputation table: the market’s view of each game is mapped onto a 1–5 scale (1 = easiest, 5 = hardest) per team and fixture, so a “big” team facing a tough opponent is rated accordingly.
Goals & clean sheets
We project each team’s expected goals for a fixture and the probability of a clean sheet using a model anchored to bookmaker lines. Those feed both the attacking and defensive sides of the points projection.
Expected points (xPts)
Expected points combine projected goals and assists, clean-sheet probability, expected minutes and bonus potential under each game’s fantasy scoring rules. xPts is the single number that lets you compare players across positions and fixtures on a like-for-like basis.
Goalscorer & assist odds
Anytime-scorer and assist probabilities are read from bookmaker player markets and presented as clean percentages, so you can see who actually carries goal threat in a given fixture.
Predicted lineups
Predicted XIs are updated as team news breaks, and the resulting minutes expectations flow into xPts.
Set-piece takers
Penalty and set-piece responsibilities are tracked and maintained editorially, because the player on penalties carries materially more goal threat than the raw stats alone suggest.
How often it updates
Projections refresh regularly - at least daily - and tighten as each deadline approaches, with more frequent updates around match days. The “updated” timestamps on the tools reflect the latest run.
Human review
The models are built and reviewed by Vice Captain’s founder, a fantasy manager with a long track record (see the author page). The data does the heavy lifting, with human review to sanity-check the outputs.
Limitations & honesty
Projections are probabilities, not promises. Rotation, injuries, red cards and late team news can move outcomes, and short samples are noisy. We continually monitor how the projections track real results and refine the models over time.
Sources
The projections draw on bookmaker odds for match and player markets, official fantasy data for prices, positions and ownership, and match statistics for player roles and form. When sources disagree, market-backed data takes priority.
Corrections
When a data source is wrong or a fixture changes, the next refresh overwrites the stale values, and material errors are corrected as soon as they’re identified. If you spot something off, tell us and we’ll look into it.